On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney visited St. John’s to unveil a new agreement concerning Churchill Falls and various electricity initiatives in Labrador, in the company of Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette.
Heralded as the largest clean energy investment in North American history, the initiative is valued at approximately $70 billion, with the federal government contributing $10 billion in financing.
These funds will be allocated for upgrading and expanding the Churchill Falls generating facility, advancing the Gull Island hydroelectric project, constructing transmission lines, and executing a 2,000 megawatt onshore wind energy project in Labrador.
This expansion will enhance the generating capacity of Churchill Falls, producing enough energy to power, heat, and cool all homes in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver combined.
Let’s take a closer look at what this could signify for Quebec, Premier Fréchette, and the upcoming provincial election campaign.
Is it truly finalized?
Not exactly.
The framework agreed upon on Monday will remain in effect until March 2027.
A formal agreement still requires signatures, and the involved parties are optimistic that this will occur by year’s end.
With the provincial election set for October 5, there is a possibility of a change in government before the deal is officially signed.
Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador have a new agreement on Churchill Falls. While Premier Tony Wakeham considers it an improved deal compared to the previously announced 2024 MOU, the Liberals and NDP remain skeptical. The CBC’s Cameron Kilfoy reports.
What implications does it have for Quebec’s electricity requirements?
According to the agreement, Quebec would gain access to over 10,000 megawatts, which constitutes more than 25% of Hydro-Québec’s total current output.
In contrast, the 2024 Churchill Falls Memorandum of Understanding, which was dismissed by Wakeham shortly after he assumed the premiership, offered a total potential of 7,200 megawatts.
Electricity generated at Churchill Falls would be sold to Quebec at an average rate of 6.2 cents per kilowatt-hour, a price that Fréchette indicated could result in savings of $200 billion throughout the duration of the agreement.
Yvan Cliche, an energy sector expert at the Université de Montréal’s international studies center, described it as a “historic landmark agreement for Quebec.”
Cliche believes the agreement will not only aid the energy sector but also benefit Quebec consumers by enabling Hydro-Québec to maintain low rates.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, center, signs a new agreement on the Churchill Falls generating station and the launch of new hydro, wind and transmission projects, alongside premiers Wakeham and Fréchette. (Paul Daly/The Canadian Press)
What does it imply for Fréchette?
For Fréchette, this agreement signifies a victory ahead of the campaign’s commencement — a chance to showcase her economic capabilities.
On Monday, the premier and leader of Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) characterized the deal as a collaboration that guarantees Quebec’s energy security for the next 50 years and promises to create thousands of jobs.
Should her party win the election in October — marking a third consecutive CAQ victory, but her first as leader — she intends to ensure the Churchill Falls agreement is formalized.
“This brings thousands of new megawatts to Quebec, which are necessary for residents, businesses, and every region in Quebec,” Fréchette stated.
Carney mentioned that the timing for the agreement is appropriate, despite its proximity to the election period, noting that discussions began four months ago, shortly after Fréchette took office.
However, some were more critical — even prior to the announcement of the agreement.
Jonathan Shetush, chief of the Innu nation of Uashat mak Mani-utenam, released a joint statement with the chief of Matimekush-Lac John asserting that no official agreement can be made without consulting their communities. (Shushan Bacon/Radio-Canada)
The leaders of the Innu nations Matimekush-Lac John and Uashat mak Mani-utenam, situated in Quebec’s Côte-Nord region, issued a joint statement highlighting their lack of consultation.
“Our participation and consent are essential for any agreement related to the Churchill Falls megaproject,” the statement reads.
They also pointed out that the original project was executed on their traditional territory — the Nitassinan — and that their claim for reparations is still pending in Quebec courts.
Hydro-Québec is poised to invest $45 billion into the undertaking and will receive roughly $6.5 billion from the federal government. For Quebec residents, this could translate to electricity bills increasing by two to five percent starting in 2029.
What are the implications for the electoral campaign in Quebec?
The campaign is anticipated to commence next week.
Days of speculation leading up to Monday highlighted Fréchette, who became premier in April, and made her a focal point for criticism from opposition parties.
In a social media post last week, Parti Québécois (PQ) Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon asserted that Fréchette lacks the legitimacy to finalize such a deal right before a campaign that would commit Quebec for 50 years, emphasizing that there was no urgency to finalize a deal at this time.
On Monday, the two exchanged criticisms, with Fréchette stating during the press conference that St-Pierre Plamondon would annul the agreement if elected.
In response, the PQ leader took to X, stating that was “simply a falsehood” and accused her of hastily arranging a deal for electoral advantage.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, captured in a photo from January this year, accuses Fréchette of attempting to gain political advantage by rushing this agreement. (Sylvain Roy Roussel)
What are the reactions from other parties?
Éric Duhaime, head of the Quebec Conservatives, echoed similar criticisms, as did Québec Solidaire (QS).
In a written statement, Duhaime remarked that Fréchette is attempting to divert Quebecers’ attention from “eight long years of poor management of our public finances” under the CAQ.
He stated that his party endorses the enhancement of energy production in Quebec and aims to optimize the province’s natural resources, including hydroelectricity, natural gas, “and potentially, nuclear power.”
Ruba Ghazal, the parliamentary leader for Québec Solidaire, accused Fréchette of prioritizing her own political ambitions with the Churchill Falls agreement rather than the interests of Quebecers. (Sylvain Roy Roussel/Radio-Canada)
Ruba Ghazal, the parliamentary leader for QS, commented that an agreement of this significance should benefit Quebecers for the next fifty years, “not the electoral interests of the CAQ.”
Charles Milliard, leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, stated that starting anew wouldn’t be wise and commended the efforts of Hydro-Québec.
However, he noted that the agreement would have immediate effects on public finances and electricity rates for Quebecers, asserting that if his party were elected, they would “thoroughly review it before endorsing it.”
Fréchette had a pointed message for the opposition parties on Monday: What agreement are you proposing?
“Where will they source the 10,000 megawatts we are bringing to Quebec with that agreement? At what price will they secure new megawatts? Where will they obtain them? How will they generate 20,000 jobs?” she inquired.
“Because this is what is included in that agreement. It’s 23,000 jobs for Newfoundland and Quebec.”