The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further until 2027 and could become the most intense on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events into the upcoming year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated during a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any observed since monitoring began, going beyond the established standards of the past four decades.
The UN weather agency indicated that their projections suggest a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by notably warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty is unprecedented, as noted by the WMO. A powerful El Niño has the potential to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, contributing to extreme weather phenomena like typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the remarkable escalation of the El Niño phenomenon, stressing the undeniable scientific evidence that the planet is entering uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño occurs cyclically due to elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, caused by weakening trade winds. This natural phenomenon typically recurs every two to seven years and can last up to 12 months, leading to severe rainfall and drought variations across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already impacted tropical regions’ soft commodities, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates that the El Niño will peak later this year but will continue to influence global temperatures into 2027, leaving a lasting impact. Saulo highlighted the WMO’s increased efforts in preparedness and early warning systems to address the situation effectively.
In response to the unfolding situation, Saulo emphasized the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with various partners within the United Nations and the humanitarian sector to provide essential climate information for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
The potential ramifications of a robust El Niño are further explored in a related video discussing the implications for individuals and communities. Some climate models have projected a strong El Niño for 2026, with CBC’s Nick Logan explaining the significance and potential impacts for Canadians.