Russia perceives itself as being in a state of conflict with NATO allies, even though this conflict has not manifested militarily. This stance allows the Kremlin to mobilize resources necessary for probing NATO defenses, identifying vulnerabilities, and determining red lines. Consequently, Russia has been engaging in a covert war in Europe against NATO states through acts like sabotaging Polish railway lines, targeting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and launching an increasingly aggressive campaign to disrupt NATO’s support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s objectives include raising the costs for NATO’s backing of Ukraine, disrupting supply chains, and fostering discord in Western nations. These actions have not yet crossed a threshold that would trigger a military response from NATO. By using third-party proxies, often recruited from social media, Russia maintains a level of deniability and flexibility that complicates attribution.
Although these sabotage operations lack full coordination across Europe and do not always align with the level of support each country provides to Ukraine, they still pose a threat. While countries like Germany, France, and Poland have faced more attacks due to their significant assistance to Ukraine, the UK, despite substantial aid to Ukraine, has experienced fewer physical assaults.
Even though Russia invests resources in surveilling the UK, its intelligence networks in Europe were disrupted in 2022 when diplomats linked to the GRU were expelled. As a result, Russia is rebuilding these networks but currently relies on local proxies, which present their own set of risks. While the attacks may not be as coordinated as they could be, Russia is likely to adapt and improve, posing a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.