Experts predict that the cost of Christmas dinner this year will remain stable compared to last year, despite the recent increase in food prices. According to market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator, the average price for a turkey and accompanying items for a family of four will be around £32.46, slightly lower than last year’s £32.57. This decrease comes even as overall grocery price inflation has stayed at 4.7% in the past month.
Retailers have been offering more promotions to attract Christmas shoppers, recognizing that price-conscious families are focusing on essential festive foods. Worldpanel data shows that the cost of a frozen turkey has decreased by 3.6% to £13.52, while parsnips are also cheaper than a year ago at 71p for four.
On the other hand, prices have increased for certain items compared to last year. Cauliflower is up by 4.2% to £1.22, carrots by 5.5% to 52p, Brussels sprouts by 3.6% to 92p, potatoes by 1.1% to £1.67, and gravy granules by 5.1% to £2.23. Additionally, stuffing mix has risen by 6.9% to 96p, cranberry sauce by approximately 10% to 86p for four servings, Christmas pudding by 0.8% to £3.34, and sparkling wine by 1.7% to £6.51 per bottle.
Aldi has maintained its prices, offering a festive meal for eight people at less than £12 or under £1.50 per person. The supermarket’s Christmas Super Six promotion includes festive vegetables that can be priced as low as 8p. Worldpanel by Numerator reports that over 31% of supermarket purchases last month were made during promotions, slightly higher than the same period last year.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, emphasized how retailers are striving to attract shoppers during the crucial Christmas period. He noted that despite financial challenges for many households, consumers are still willing to spend on small indulgences. Premium own-label products have seen increased popularity, with approximately £1 in every £20 spent on such treat items.
Although chocolate prices have risen by 18.4% compared to last year, five million households included a confectionery advent calendar in their November purchases. Over 10% of shoppers bought Champagne or sparkling wine in the past month.
Online grocer Ocado achieved a record market share of 2.2%, with sales growing by 15.8% in the last three months. However, physical stores continue to dominate the grocery sector, and the days leading up to Christmas are expected to be the busiest for supermarket shopping.
Lidl saw the largest market share gain, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to reach 8.1%. Aldi’s sales rose by 4.1%, maintaining a market share of 10.5%. Sainsbury’s experienced a 5.1% increase in sales, bringing its market share to 16%, while Asda’s sales dropped by 4.3%, holding a market share of 11.5%.
Tesco remains the leading retailer, with sales growing by 4.7% to nearly £10.2 billion in the three months leading up to November, boosting its market share to 28.3%.