As of the latest update, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen only six named storms, with most being short-lived. The significant decrease in hurricane activity this year can be primarily attributed to the strong El Niño event, according to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.
El Niño, a part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, affects the central Pacific Ocean’s water and atmospheric winds. The current “super” El Niño is suppressing Atlantic hurricane formation. El Niño occurs when the central Pacific Ocean’s temperatures are 0.5 C warmer than average, disrupting hurricane development due to increased wind shear.
Despite initial forecasts of up to 14 named storms and six hurricanes, NOAA revised its predictions in August to seven to 13 named storms and two to six hurricanes due to the El Niño impact. The warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean influence the Atlantic by creating unfavorable wind conditions for hurricanes.
The ongoing El Niño event is expected to reach historic levels, with anomalies potentially exceeding the 2.4 C record set in 1982-1983. While the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet, there is a slight chance of hurricane formation, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the Caribbean region still faces high wind shear, limiting potential storm formations.
In contrast, El Niño typically enhances hurricane activity in the Pacific Ocean, with 16 named storms already recorded. Tropical Storm Fay nearly developed into a hurricane, falling just short of the Category 1 threshold. Despite the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic, some short-lived tropical storms have impacted the Gulf of Mexico.
The current El Niño is forecasted to peak in late 2026, continuing into 2027. The implications for next year’s hurricane season remain uncertain, as post-El Niño years often experience warmer Atlantic conditions. Consequently, the possibility of an active hurricane season in 2027 remains uncertain.