Prime Minister Mark Carney asserts that Canada plays a crucial role in driving American economic growth, highlighting the export of natural gas to the U.S. as evidence during a recent speech. This raises the question of the potential impact if Canada were to cease sending shipments southward.
Despite the ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S., energy resources like oil and natural gas have not been used as bargaining tools. The notion of leveraging energy sources in trade negotiations is divisive, with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith opposing it while Ontario’s Doug Ford advocates for exploring all available options.
Carney emphasized that the U.S.’s reliance on Canadian energy is significant, with Canada supplying 99% of their natural gas imports, 85% of electricity imports, and 60% of crude oil imports. Natural gas imports from Canada to the U.S. have been substantial, averaging 8.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, meeting a significant portion of America’s international supply.
Dulles Wang, from the energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, suggests that Canadian natural gas exports to the U.S. constitute a relatively small percentage, estimated at around five percent. Natural gas pipelines interconnect across North America, facilitating the flow of gas for various purposes such as heating homes, generating electricity, and fueling industries.
Enbridge, based in Calgary, stands as the largest natural gas provider in North America. In recent years, the company completed acquisitions totaling $19 billion to obtain three U.S. utilities. Gas trade between Canada and the U.S. is not unidirectional, with gas flowing both ways across the border to meet demand in different regions.
While Canadian natural gas exports to the U.S. might be modest compared to domestic production, the geographic distribution of these deliveries holds significance. Regions like the Pacific Northwest heavily rely on Canadian gas imports, with over 90% of gas sourced from Canada. Conversely, areas like Texas, which produce more gas than they consume, do not heavily depend on Canadian imports.
The LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, B.C., started shipping liquefied natural gas to Asian markets recently, aiming to diversify Canada’s energy export destinations beyond the U.S. The surge in data center construction in regions like the Pacific Northwest, driven by increased AI use, has led to a heightened demand for natural gas to power these facilities.
Ceasing natural gas exports to the U.S. would have negative repercussions for Canada’s gas industry, causing a supply surplus and plummeting prices as storage facilities reach capacity. This move would be detrimental to Canada’s economy, eliminating a major customer and causing a price crash, as noted by Wang.
The Canadian government aims to expand its energy exports beyond the U.S., with initiatives like the LNG Canada project and the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG export facility. Supporting these projects is crucial to reduce dependence on the U.S. market and enhance Canada’s energy export capabilities.