US President Donald Trump suggests that the conflict in Iran and its neighboring region could soon come to an end, as he seeks a way to de-escalate the situation. The ongoing war has incurred significant costs for America and Israel, involving expenditures on missiles, troop movements, warplanes, and maintaining the US fleet in the Arabian Sea, yet the Iranian regime remains resilient.
Iran’s strategy of outlasting the coalition forces and posing a costly threat to the Gulf States seems to have been effective, prompting Trump to consider ending the war to positively impact financial markets. While Iran’s military capabilities have been weakened, its leadership has grown more resolute and aggressive. The decision on when to cease missile attacks ultimately lies with Iran.
Motjaba Khamenei, successor to his late father, Ayatollah Khamenei, has close affiliations with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has faced personal losses. Trump’s inconsistent messaging has highlighted his lack of strategic depth and competency in initiating the war.
Despite initial promises of support to opposition movements within Iran, the regime’s crackdown on dissenters intensified, with no tangible assistance materializing. The prospect of a US-led regime change seems unlikely, leaving protesters vulnerable to regime reprisals as the war potentially concludes.
Trump’s warnings to Iran about impeding oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of intensified attacks indicate a protracted conflict. Israel, too, has incurred substantial costs in its attempts to destabilize Iran without achieving regime change or dismantling Iran’s nuclear program entirely.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expresses determination to support Iranian opposition forces but acknowledges the challenges of effecting regime change without ground intervention. The current military campaign has severely weakened Iran’s military assets but has not fully achieved its objectives.
The cycle of attacks on Iranian facilities persists despite talks of war cessation, indicating a prolonged conflict ahead. Trump’s contemplation of an exit strategy hints at an unresolved war that may see renewed hostilities in the future, prolonging the cycle of violence.
Chris Hughes is an esteemed Defence and Security Editor at the Daily Mirror, recognized with the UK Press Awards Specialist Journalist of the Year in 2013. With extensive experience as a war correspondent, he has reported from various conflict zones worldwide.
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